Ground-Zero Empiricism

Previous articleNext article FreeGround-Zero EmpiricismLorraine DastonLorraine Daston Search for more articles by this author PDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailQR Code SectionsMore10 April 2020I am used waking up in the seventeenth century. As a historian of early modern science, that’s where I spend lot time. But it is strange that everyone else suddenly keeping me company there. No, don’t mean plague. Fortunately us, COVID-19 nowhere near as deadly diseases caused bacterium Yersinia pestis. From its arrival Pisa 1348 last great outbreak Marseilles 1720, killed at least 30 percent Europe’s population and probably comparable number along path from South Asia Middle East. That would translate ninety-nine million deaths US alone. No one, not even gloomiest epidemiologists, think will carry off almost third world’s population.Yet, beyond tepid reassurance, there’s much consensus just how virus is; observed case-fatality rates places disease has spread so far range 12.7 (30.25 per 100,000 inhabitants—this better gauge when testing still spotty) Italy 2.2 (3.14) Germany, although two countries have (and comparably good) health systems. For US, current rate 3.6 (5.04); China, 4 (0.24).1 There always variability same bug affects different individuals: age, sex, income, medical care, genetic dispositions, nutrition, many other factors all play role. within large samples hundreds thousands patients, stable averages ought emerge converge, roughly similar populations. Why are these numbers over map?That’s what meant said we’ve been catapulted back century: we living moment ground-zero empiricism, which everything grabs, was members earliest scientific societies—and else—circa 1660. them, figuring out phenomenon (Was heat or luminescence matter, plague, one kind thing?), best study (Collect comprehensive natural histories? Count instances? Perform experiments; if so, kind? Systematically observe; exactly, long?), why happened did, and, above all, do with about it—none basic questions had an agreed-upon answer. It wasn’t question lacking knowledge. We lack knowledge, research never-ending. no settled script go knowing.Of course, exaggerate analogy between then now. Thanks small part ingenuity, sagacity, sheer persistence researchers since century, heirs only knowledge (what is, does, thwart it) but also diverse repertoire ways knowing, well-designed experiments systematic observations, already being refined yoked together chemical assays statistical analysis computer simulations. And researchers, philosophers their curled periwigs professors white lab coats legions lynx-eyed investigators everywhere, sea fields, cities kitchens, noting events correlations: bark lowers fever; cloud formation portends storm; lackluster stone shines dark cool light. They helped draft our knowing: lengthy, intricate, well-rehearsed guides efforts understand, among things, perplexingly various manifestations.Yet, moments radical novelty uncertainty emits, like squid obscuring itself ink, temporarily thrown into state empiricism. Chance apparent correlations, anecdotes ordinarily barely merit mention, less publication peer-reviewed journals, internet buzzing speculations physicians, virologists, microbiologists, interested lay public. Is true men dying than women, age groups? Are differences real artifact test infected persons (the denominator fraction) and/or causes death registered? example, some count anyone who tested positive due virus, matter (such diabetes, example) might played role; use dominant proximate classifications; both systems pros cons.Quite aside fog statistics, there facts yet be ascertained. airborne long can linger air)? Do antiviral drugs help alleviate symptoms acute cases—and whom? How ventilators, available, prolong life patients sick enough warrant use? Does cause heart attacks? Medical staff Wuhan Hackensack, Seoul London, Bergamot New York City frantically exchanging observations on Twitter therapies curious cases (a very seventeenth-century term).At extreme uncertainty, observation, usually treated poor relation experiment statistics comes own. Suggestive single cases, striking anomalies, partial patterns, correlations too faint withstand scrutiny, works doesn’t: every clinical sense, sight, sharpens search clues. Eventually, those clues guide statistics: test, count. The converge; revealed; sink tolerable levels. now, observing lives depended it.NotesLorraine director emerita Max Planck Institute History Science, Berlin, permanent fellow Wissenschaftskolleg zu visiting professor Committee Social Thought University Chicago. Her most recent book Against Nature (2019).1. See Johns Hopkins Medicine, “Mortality Analyses,” Coronavirus Resource Center, 10 Apr. 2020, coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality DetailsFiguresReferencesCited Critical Inquiry Volume 47, Number S2Winter 2021Posts PandemicEdited Hank Scotch Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/711436 Views: 1779 Citations: 3Citations reported Crossref © 2021 All rights reserved.PDF download reports following citing article:Madeline DiGiovanni, Indigo Weller, Andrés Martin Pivoting pandemic: qualitative child adolescent psychiatrists times COVID-19, Child Adolescent Psychiatry Mental Health 15, no.11 (Jun 2021).https://doi.org/10.1186/s13034-021-00382-6W. J. T. Mitchell Groundhog Day Epoché, no.S2S2 (Dec 2020): S95–S99.https://doi.org/10.1086/711447Lydia H. Liu Incalculable: Thoughts Collapse Biosecurity Regime, S110–S114.https://doi.org/10.1086/711450